The Indian cheetah was lost from India back in 1952. Hosting Tigers, Lions, Leopards, and Snow Leopards within its borders, it was a mark of pride when the cheetah reintroduction was announced. It is certainly true that cheetah once roamed India, and as the only cat to be lost in theory I would agree that it should be returned. However, there are many other issues, not least the fate of surviving Indian wild cat species: Indian lions came close to extinction, and Tiger population fell to about 1% of historical numbers – now up to about 4%, Indian snow leopards are also only thought to number around 4-500.
In other words, there is much concern that any significant amount of conservation money, which might otherwise be used to protect the remaining Indian Lions Tigers and Snow Leopards (as well as Leopards and other smaller cats) will be redirected to reintroduce the Cheetah, and therefore one of these other species will be lost in the process.
What is of bigger concern, while these are not the 3 to have died, only 3 of the 20 cheetah have been fully released into the wild
Furthermore, there has been much doubt about whether Kuno national park was the place to reintroduce cheetah. It almost appeared to be awarded on the basis that having been given the honour of being a second home for the Asiatic Lion, Gujarat refused to hand over any animals. While Gujarat has argued time and again for a variety of reasons, what is clear is that the Gujarat state wanted to be the only place with Asiatic lions. Given that they are talking about a species that was not only found in a much larger area of India, but in much of the rest of Asia, the middle east and through much of eastern and Southern Europe, but also throughout northern Africa, and is still found in small numbers in a variety of countries in Africa Benin, Burkina Faso,Niger, Nigeria and Senegal, the claim that only Gujarat has the right to lions is insane. Further more, they have done such a terrible job of looking after them, it is essential to create a second Indian population. Now it is true that currently about 2/3 of remaining Asiatic Lions live in India, the other 1/3 lives well outside Gujarat’s control (and is probably a good idea).
Giving a reserve the right of being the site of reintroduction on the basis of loosing another animal does not really say anything about the habitat or its suitability.
So how is it suitable? Well, the long term plan is to introduce 50 cheetah into the Kuno reserve. This reserve is 289 square miles -for context, we can look at the number of cheetah that are supported by the Kruger in South Africa. Like Kuno, the Kruger is not considered perfect habitat, the typical view of a Cheetah home is the open plains of the Serengeti, but cheetah are far more adaptable than this view would lead to believe. Nevertheless, while Kruger does support cheetah, lets look at the density.
The Kruger covers an area of about 7500 square miles or about 26 times as large as Kuno. Back in 2007, when I trained in the Kruger as a wildlife guide, there were about 60-70 cheetah in the Kruger, when we visited last year that number had gone up to 420. These wild variation in numbers is cyclical and generally little to do with cheetahs so much as the number of either bigger predators, or prey (it is worth noting, that as much as 2000 cheetah live elsewhere in South Africa, on a mix of small reserves with less competition, or on farmland).
Still we can use these numbers as a basis for Kuno. Lets, for arguments sake, forget the fact that Cheetahs tend to only do well in the large African parks. Kruger national park cheetah density range has moved between about 1 per hundred square miles and 1 per 18 square miles. If Kuno were to have 50 cheetah, this would lead to 1 per less than 6 miles, or 3 times the density of the Kruger. To check our numbers, the population of cheetah in the Masai Mara, Serengeti ecosystem falls in the range of 300-600 (a recent UNESCO estimate suggests the Serengeti currently hosts 225, which would suggest the ecosystem number at near the bottom of the range) which gives a cheetah density in the Serengeti of between 1 cheetah between ever 25-50 square miles.
Therefore, if we use the Serengeti numbers, the Kuno reserve can support 6 cheetah, if we use the Kruger, it is between 3 and 15 cheetah. Neither of these figures is anywhere near the 50 number which is planned.
What does this mean? Well, it suggests that the Kuno cheetah population is never going to be self-sustaining – experts have calculated that this area can support around 21 cheetah. Given the 50/500 rule, 50 animals are needed to avoid inbreeding, so over time they will need to hit 1 cheetah per 6 miles, just for a viable population. 500 animals is needed to stop genetic drift (small populations often end up with specific genetic traits that in a large population would disappear). As such, even if they are about to have a density of cheetah 3 times higher than the Kruger, or 4-8 times the density of the Serengeti, they will still be required to regularly translocate animals in and out of the population to keep genetic diversity high enough.
So what is my conclusion? Well, I would also love for cheetah to be able to roam India, but in a country with a human density of over 400 people per square mile (160 per square km), it is never going to be possible to set aside huge areas for wildlife. In Africa, some wilderness areas are more than 10,000 square miles in size (25000 square km) where-as in India Namdapha national park is the biggest at only 766 square km. In other words, no wilderness in India is large enough to contain big cats and a viable population of cheetah. Does this mean that they should not try? that is debatable. I would argue that the Indian population cannot grow forever – while it is still growing at around 1% this has been slowing for the last 30 years, one prediction is that the population will peak at 1.7 billion people in 2064. If this is true, then I believe provided poaching is kept to a minimum, much of the wildlife will survive. However, clearly the current emphasis should be on protecting what species still survive in India, worry about reintroducing cheetah when your still living local wildlife is safe from extinction.
