Of the slightly over 8 billion humans on earth, 4.641 billion, or just under 60% live in Asia. While this is expected to grow to 5.25 billion people in 2055 it will only be 54% (due to increasing populations elsewhere in the world) of global population at the time.
So, what is the problem? An average fertility rate of 2.1 is currently considered necessary to maintain population levels (that is, 2.1 births per female). When the fertility rate drops below this rate, there are not enough babies being born to replace all of the people dying. As environmentalists, this is good, as the human population is thought (by some) to be too high to sustainable retain long-term (estimates as to what population the earth can sustain long-term range from a relatively small 0.65 billion to an enormous 9-10 billion). Of course, it depends on what we consider as sustainable survival – for me, and I hope for most of you, what I would consider sustainable, would be a low enough population to allow all other species on earth to thrive, so I would suggest that a number near the bottom of this list is more reasonable.
Below, we will look at a range of Asian countries with large populations
- South Korea currently has a fertility rate of just 0.72, which is predicted to lead to a halving of the population by 2100 (over the roughly 75 years between now and then, or roughly 3 generations while this seems incredibly slow, one needs to remember that each person born today, is likely to still be alive in 2100 – a drop in fertility rate often takes a couple of generations to start to show. The current population is 51 million people, and is expected to be between 22 and 27 million in 2100
- China has a fertility rate of 1.0, but their fertility rate fell to this level earlier than South Korea, meaning that the Chinese population is expected to decline from 1.411 billion, but is expected to be under 800 million by 2100
- Japan has a fertility rate of 1.2 and its population of 124 million is expected to fall to just 61 million by 2100
- India has a current fertility rate of 2.01 which is below replacement rate. Estimates for the population by the end of the century range from just over 1 billion all the way up to 1.5 billion, though given this fertility rate, the lower figure is probably more likely, given that the current population is roughly 1.4 billion
- Indonesia has a current population of 267 million and this is still rising, however, it is predicted that by 2100 it will have fallen to 243.
An outlier, Pakistan is predicted to have a population of 487 million by this time, up from a current 240 million
Africa is also different, with a current population of 1.3 billion, which is expected to rise to almost 4 billion by this time.
Brazil, the most populous country in South America, currently has a population of 212 million, which is expected to decline to 184 million.
Europe has a current population of 742 million, which is expected to decline to 586 million in 2100.
Fertility rates have the capability to fall fast, often as the standard of living is increased, and the literacy rate increases in the female population. At the moment Muslim countries are currently still growing, and in many places they are not good at educating their women, which means that this part of the human population is currently still growing, and these countries (many in northern Africa, as well as Asia) are predicted to double their population between now and 2100. At the current time, a global population of betweeb 8.8 and 11.2 billion is expected in 2100, with many studies suggesting 10.2 however this could change rapidly. Obviously, the faster this changes, the better for the natural world.
