So, when someone who is chairman of the car company which sells the most cars in the world says something, people listen. Toyota sold a total of 11.23 million cars in 2023, out of a market of around 92 million cars, or around 12% of global car sales. So perhaps he is right? Well a large number of people do not think so.
His arguments against electric cars include
- access to electricity – 1 billion people worldwide do not have electricity. However, there are only 1.475 billion cars in the world, or 2 for every 11 people in the world. Further more, it seems likely that the 1 billion without electricity, probably also do not have a car.
- Customer choice – he argues that customers should be able to choose the powertrain they want. However, the electric car has not been explored by Toyota, as they only have one fully electric model, the BZ4X and the UX400e (under the Lexus brand). The BZ4X is a premium car, but it only has an official efficiency of 2.9 miles per KWH, which is worse than the large tesla X gets (this car is over 34cm longer, and almost 9cm taller. This makes it more comparable to the tesla y (still 6cm longer, 2.4cm higher, slightly less ground clearance, but 34% more cargo space), however this car (which you can see is bigger) gets 4 miles per kwh, over 33% more efficient.
Well, lets look at the statistics.
China is already at 60% penetration, while Europe is at 25%, and north America is just at 10%. It is true, that this increase has been dramatic, with much of it having taken place in the last 5 years, but this prediction was made in January.
So China is already above Toyoda’s supposed limit, Europe is predicted to reach 30% penetration by 2027 (with the UK thought to be around 3 years behind), the USA is predicted to reach this 30% target by 2027.
In other words, Aiko Toyoda has made a prediction, which is likely to be exceeded within just 6 years across much of the car buying world (and is already false in some large markets). Why did he say this then? Probably, at least in part, because he and his predecessors have steered the company wrong. Choice is all very well, but when the running differences across much of the world are as high as £5000 pounds, most people will vote with their feet.
Toyotas powertrain options include
- Diesel or petrol – this is going to be banned across much of the world in the near future, with Norway banning them in 2025, with UK, Israel and Singapore saying 2030, and the rest of Europe following in 2035. While China has not yet set a date, one province has already banned them, and this is likely to spread fast (and given 60% penetration, it is going to become increasingly irrelevant)
- Mild and full hybrids have been proved to be some of the most dangerous cars on the road (putting flammable fuels close to batteries is not a good move). Mild hybrids are an interesting idea, but unfortunately too late to the party – they capture some of braking energy into a battery, to be used to accelerate again, making them more efficient, but only combustion engine cars. Full hybrids are far better, allowing the battery to be charged, and to drive the car on pure electricity for short distances – the reasoning being that when driving around the area you live in, you drive on electricity, but should you wish to take a long journey, you treat the car like a normal combustion engine car. However, this has the frustration of only allowing 5-20 or so miles of electric range, and being a less efficient car when driving in petrol mode. Indeed, for many people this car demonstrates the advantages of electric. A friend who recently bought a hybrid car second hand, is already talking about getting a tesla Y – the electric part of the car showed what an electric car could do, so he wants a pure electric to drive hundreds of miles rather than being limited to just 20.
- Hydrogen – A hydrogen car, is essentially an electric car. The hydrogen is allowed to combine with oxygen to create electricity, powering the car. So what is the advantage? Well a Mirai hydrogen car can travel 300-400 miles on a tank (real world tests suggest 312, read here), and only takes 3-5 minutes to refill. However, a Toyota Mirai can take 5.6kg of hydrogen, which costs roughly £84 if you can find a hydrogen station. There are just 16 in the UK, with a possible further 16 in development. The problem is, where does the hydrogen come from? Taking 50-55kwh to create 1kg of hydrogen, in the Mirai, this will drive you a maximum of 71 miles – even the least efficient electric car in the UK gets around 3 miles per kwh, giving a range of at least twice (and in an electric car this will cost you around £3-4 at home (UK prices) or around £34 from a tesla supercharger. Also, a hydrogen car is forced to vent from time to time, if the pressure gets too high.
The fact of the matter, is that Toyota has gone full in, on hydrogen. They Toyota Mirai costs over £50,000 (they have only sold 22,000 since 2014), Giving a range of 300-400, is also no longer further than many new electric cars. Another downside of this (and many hydrogen cars), is that the fuel tanks take up so much space that, in for instance the Toyota Mirai, despite being a relatively large car, there are only 2 seats in the back. Other brands are often a little behind, but a tesla 3 long range only costs £49,000 and has a range of 325, while a Tesla S which admittedly costs £73,000 has a comfortable range of over 400 (and you are going to spend far more than the price difference on hydrogen vs electricity).
As an aside, this choice is not helping Toyota. Despite selling 7 times more cars than Tesla in 2023, tesla profits per car were 8 times higher, so Tesla still made more profits – suggesting that even for the share-holders, this idea of many power-trains is not good for profit either.
In summation: without a complete change of direction, Toyota is in danger. Petrol and diesel will be banned in the near future, hybrid of any type, is a poor alternative to electric, and while hydrogen offers better than combustion, it is more expensive, more complicated, more dangerous and needs expensive roll-out across the world. Toyota may want to offer everything to everyone, but for the majority of their customers, they are going to go for the cheapest option. and many are doing so, by abandoning the brand and going elsewhere (the current electric models that Toyota offers are too expensive and inefficient, suggesting that the brand is not offering all fuel types to the same standard. Thankfully, while Toyota tends to have a pretty dedicated following, increasingly its customers are giving up,
