An analysis of the effect of the current Paris climate pledges, run through climate models suggest we are in line for a temperature rise of just 2.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
This is obviously hugely encouraging, particularly in light of the behavior within the USA under Donald Trump over the last few years. Now of course, this new climate analysis is made on the basis that in January Joe Biden will be president- someone who fully recognizes the global warming position, and believes the climate experts (unlike Donald Trump who simply says “I don;t believe it”).
Of particular note, the predicted warming that we can expect by the end of the century has declined from 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, down to 2.1.
It should be noted that some experts are pointing out that the current trends on carbon dioxide emissions do not match the long-term optimism. If the world doesn’t start cutting Carbon emissions in the next few years, the speed of cuts required to meet goals will become overwhelming.
It is extremely encouraging that 11 years after the failed Copenhagen climate conference, a point at which we were in line for 3.5 degrees Celsius that has fallen by 40%. However, there is more work to be done. At the time that politicians were making agreements to keep the temperature rise to 2 degrees (it should be noted that even with this more encouraging prediction we are on average 0.1 degrees higher).
What is more, at the time climate scientists outlined what the world would look like with warming of 2 degrees. Because of the horrific storms, expansion of desert, floods, sea rises and other impacts, it was made clear that the world should be aiming for just 1.5 degrees of warming.
If this is the case we are still on course to warm the planet 0.6 degrees more than scientists said we could afford. The amount of money that the extra 0.6 degrees will cost, is likely to run into the trillions.
Now, of course, this is good news. In 22 years we have reduced the expected level of warming by 0.9 degrees, but this should merely pile on the pressure to buckle down, and go far further.
With substantial forest replanting, the move to electric transport, and the gradual elimination of fossil fuel in our electricity generation, not only can we live cleaner and greener- and importantly without significant changes to our lives, but also make sure we leave behind a planet that will nurture our descendants.
We cannot go back to a world without long distance flight. Apart from anything ,without a way for ecosystem hosts to generate money from tourists, mass extinction is likely to get far worse. If flight can get greener, then we can fund the survival of many ecosystems on the planet, through tourism. This is also a self fulfilling issue. If countries with rain forests cannot generate money from tourism, they are likely to cut them down or back, leading to increased global warming.
While the travel market-place on this site is currently relatively small, I am hoping that within a few years I will be able to list hundreds of destination, and help protect thousands of square miles of habitat from destruction, saving the ecosystems in question and the would from extreme climate change
