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Half of the world’s fossil fuel resources will be worthless by 2036

It is thought there are roughly £20 trillion fossil fuel resources left in the ground. Yet it is also recognised that in order to meet the temperature increase targets of 1.5 to 2 degrees c half of it needs to be left in the ground.

That means that £10 trillion of assets and resources owned by some of the most wealthy companies in the world cannot be extracted. Looking at it differently, worldwide companies will be desperately trying to sell 10 trillion pounds worth of useless products to get them off their books.

When you cut the bottom out of a market like that it can have devastating impacts. It is thought that the crash that this would cause would be bigger than that felt back in 2008.

Despite knowing that fossil fuel extraction is going to have to end soon, views on the safety of fossil-fuel Investments have not changed. Indeed, the UK, most local councils currently own fossil-fuel investments. 

Fossil-fuel Investments have been quite popular since they arrived. So long as the estimate of the amount of fossil fuels available is accurate, you will get your money back plus more – however if the fossil fuels you have invested in I left in the ground you are likely to lose almost all of your money.

The crash in oil prices during the epidemic is a very bold sign telling us what is going to happen. The big concern for oil companies is clear to see coming down the road. Oil demand did not disappear, it merely reduced as a few people were driving. Yet over the next 20 to 30 years, it is likely that virtually all of the world stock of fossil fuel cars will need to be replaced by electric ones. This will reduce fossil fuel demand by roughly 26%. This increases to 45% when you include air travel – and while currently we do not know how to replace all planes, the current crop of electric vehicles in the pipeline (particularly aircraft such as EasyJet single aisle 180 person plane run on batteries) are likely to reduce aviation fuel requirements by 50% or more. That increases the reduction in fossil fuel requirements to 35% at a minimum – this will occur in the next couple of decades.

Partnering this with a dramatically reducing use of fossil fuels to heat homes, we could easily see oil demand falling by more than half.

This will depress the price by so much that many different untapped resources will no longer be economically viable.

For economists and business analysts as well as those of us who are nearly amateur watches, the next few decades are going to be fascinating, building a market that moves away from a system they have used for hundreds of years is essential and must occur in perhaps as little as a decade.

What will the impact on large oil companies, when it becomes clear that resources that they have paid billions to exploit must be left alone? Will the companies even survive? Shares are likely to take a huge hit, and as each of these companies will see their core business lost, will there be anything to replace the huge profits that they have been used to over the last few hundred years?

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At the moment the world’s current maximum temperature rise would make life impossible for 1 billion people on the planet

At 35 degrees Celsius the human body can no longer regulated temperature effectively. Indeed even healthy people sitting in the shade at this temperature turn to last not much more than 6 hours.

If we have 4 degrees of global warming, half of the population on earth will fall into the dangerous category of extreme heat.

Currently, Brazil India and Ethiopia are the hardest hit by extreme heat, but at 4 degrees Celsius, this will increase dramatically impact in large parts of Europe as well as lots of other parts of the developed world.

The scary statistic is that even if we hit 2 degrees of warming, this will still put more than 1 billion under this horrific heat condition.

Continue reading “At the moment the world’s current maximum temperature rise would make life impossible for 1 billion people on the planet”
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Wild travel can resume!

With the improving covid situation worldwide finally we can return to visiting wild areas of the planet. Not only has the tourist industry missed this basil so it has had a terrible impact on conservation efforts in many parts of the world.

This is because in many cases there is not enough money to protect animals without out.the tourist dollars that they bring in. Since covid start there have been very few tourists arriving in many of these countries.

Yet this situation is changing. Now, many countries in Africa are considered completely safe. There have been less infections across the whole of Africa than have been reported in the UK – now while some of this may be down to poor health care (there are slightly more people who have died from covid in Africa than the UK), clearly your risk in Africa is far lower than your risk in the UK.

My family will be travelling to Kruger in South Africa in August! Obviously I hope for this to create many stories for this site and videos for the sister YouTube channel.

My other aim is to be able to list all of the public rest stops on the website after this trip. 

What does this mean?

Currently we only list the private reserves along the borders of the Kruger. These are fantastic ways of seeing wildlife. You will be pampered indeed spoilt, by the wonderful treatment you will receive. 

However, even amongst wealthy people, the cost of these lodges can become prohibitive – a one week safari in some of these places can run to $10,000 or more per person.

Of course on this website we wish to cater for people who have large amounts of money, however we are not in this category and we want to cater for everyone.

Self-drive safaris are something that many people greatly enjoy. With a little bit of research you can quickly become competent at finding the animal to yourself (sighting maps in each rest stop help). There is something liberating about entering an area so large, and being able to go where you like as you like, exploring whichever part of the park you prefer.

On self-drive safaris your accommodation is different. Generally you have the choice of setting up your own tent, taking a hut, or in some places a mid option is a a fancy safari tent. These obviously very in price, but even in the most expensive you are likely to be spending less over your whole holiday then you would for one night on a private reserve.

For those who could afford it I would recommend to do a self-drive safari with a couple of days on a private reserve at the beginning or end of your trip.

DO CONSIDER BOOKING TRIPS ABROAD. THESE RESERVES WILL BE LESS CROWDED THAN NORMAL, AND WE CAN STOP RESERVES BEING TURNED INTO HUNTING AREAS IF WE RETURN SOON ENOUGH.

All of the partners on this site have very reasonable policies on cancelation if this is necessary because of Covid.

There is also the advantage at the moment, that most airlines have a simple policy of cancellation if advice suggests that travel is not wise.

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Conservationists are looking to release a herd of European Bison into the UK, Blean woods near Canterbury – first in 6000 years

European Bison (or close relatives) were once an important part of the UK fauna, as the largest UK mammal, they had the strength to push down trees and therefore had an important role of ecosystem engineer.

The project is aimed at starting by reintroducing these animals into Blean woods near Canterbury. I have walked in Blean woods a number of times, as it is close to where my father works some of the year. Only a small herd will live in this wood (alongside iron age pigs, longhorn cattle and exmoor ponies) but these 4 species are likely to have a great deal of impact on the woodland.

For the time being, the Bison will live in a 150 hectare enclosure, with no footpaths, never the less the hope is that descendants of these pioneers could be released into truly wild parts of the UK.

Admittedly, the European Bison probably never lived in the UK, but the steppe bison an incredibly similar animal did.

A major part of the rangers job will be to take people on walks in the enclosure. This will help people get used to the idea. After all, there are currently no wild animals in the UK that weigh anywhere near the tonne that these animals would weigh.

These gentle giants would do wonders for the British ecosystem, and I for one look forwards to the time when seeing European Bison is like spotting highland ponies or wild horses in different parts of the country.

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I wrote about blue hydrogen earlier this year, one current suggestion is to replace gas with hydrogen in heating – bad idea?

It is thought that when you add in all the unaccounted emissions, emissions from using hydrogen could be 20% higher than using gas itself.

We must make sure that current gas and oil producers are not able to move forward their idea of changing to blue hydrogen from gas. Green hydrogen – made by splitting water (if done with clean electricity) is completely clean. There is no point in ceasing to use oil and gas if we still need these things in order to create hydrogen.

Instead we must look to green hydrogen either using electricity, or indeed if progress continues, using catalysts.

There is no point in eradicating the use of fossil fuels if its replacement is worse.

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If the UK covered all south facing roofs with solar panels, this could provide all our electricity – but

Currently, the weight of solar panels mean that (along with the cost) it is rare that companies have the money to cover large roofs with solar panels.

A new product developed by a firm in Sunderland may change this. They have developed a light weight alternative which can be stuck in the same place panels would usually go. This method is much cheaper and at least as effective as many flexible panels.

They still have tests to run, but if they are a success, the company aims to start selling it 0.3mm thick solar film in the middle of 2022. This would also easily go on cars and lorries as well. Although the initial aim will be to cover large building, a lorry has roughly 20 square meters of flat roof space – even with relatively poor panels, this should make 20-30kwh a day easily. While an electric lorry will use more than this, over the year, a system like this could make as much as 6megawatt hours, which is certainly not to be sniffed at.

Could this new product move us faster towards gaining significant amounts of our power from solar? I would hope so.

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Blue whales are returning to Spain’s Atlantic coast after a 40 year absence. What now

The first blue whale sighted in decades from this part of the world, was spotted off Spain’s coast in 2017, a different individual appeared in 2018 and a third in 2019. In 2020 2 returned.

At the end of September another was sighted off the coast of Spain.

It is unsure why they are back. Are they returning because they now feel safe? Or has climate change moved their food? Either way, it is quite something to see these huge animals returning to areas where they were hunted almost to extinction by humans.

Just before the whaling moratorium came into force, an entire generation of whales was wiped out. Now the descendants of the few who survived are returning. Some researchers are concerned that they are being forced north by global warming. Given that blue whales dont seem to cross the equator, if each population is pushed towards the poles, their habitat will be significantly reduced. Furthermore, their dung fertilizes ocean upper waters (areas with little nutrients) allowing phytoplankton to bloom, thereby capturing more carbon – and when I say more carbon, we are talking about 4 times the amount of carbon stored in the Amazon rainforest.

Whale recovery still has a long way to go. Before whaling started, there was estimated to be 4-5 million whales in the planets seas. At the current time, there are 1.3 million or roughly a quarter of pre whaling numbers. Importantly, the blue whale was so mercilessly hunted, that they have not recovered to anywhere near pre whaling numbers: their current population is only thought to be around 3% of historical numbers.

These animals are worth far more alive than dead. I realize that some communities have eaten whale for millennia. However there are several caveats to this. Firstly we have abandoned other environmentally damaging behaviours, why should we allow this. Secondly, few if any of the currently whaling countries rely on whaling to survive. In fact, with many of these communities, whaling is a recent activity. The Faroe islands kill thousands of dolphins and small whales each year, but they do not need all this meat, and this slaughter so colours peoples views that they loose far more in tourism revenue than they gain in the meat.

What ever is decided long-term to do with whale hunting, it is clear that blue whales should be left alone for a very long time more – many blue whale communities are flourishing with their population growing by 7-8% a year. However, given blue whales are at roughly 3% currently, it would take over half a century at current rates for the blue whale population to return to the numbers pre hunting.

Until the arrival of a blue whale off the coast is no longer memorable, there should not be any discussion about any harvesting. Furthermore, if the amount of carbon sequestration done by each whale is as high as it is thought, any meat should be priced high enough to pay for this (if this were to be done whale meat would be too expensive for almost anyone to afford)

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Do rich countries need to target aid more carefully?

Air pollution kills more people than Malaria Aids and TB combined, yet it receives just 1% of the aid budget.

Alarmingly, last year, rich countries gave 20% more to fossil fuel projects than to programmes to cut the air pollution they cause. Dirty air, is responsible for roughly 4 million deaths a year.

If comparing the number of years of life lost to each cause of death, HIV receives 34 times as much funding, and. Africa and Latin America have 500,000 deaths a year from air pollution, yet they receive 5% and 10% of the funding respectively.

Now it is true that greening the economies of the world may in the future, eliminate many of these deaths, but we also give more money to fossil fuel projects than we do to green power that might replace it – this is despite the fact that the green project is often cheaper to build and to run and doesnt have the negatives on local people that come with burning things.

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Brush-tailed Bettongs reintroduced into South Australia

The Brush-tailed Bettong was almost lost from the whole of mainland Australia, after Europeans introduced cats and foxes from home.

A Brush tailed Bettong credit to Arthur Chapman

As an ecosystem engineer (like the European Beaver in the UK) its absence has caused problems for the greater ecosystem as a whole. Looking like a cross between a rat and a kangaroo it eats a variety of fungi. When they dig up fungi and truffles, they spread fungal spores to the wind, as well as on their feet. without them many fungis may well disapear, leaving soils far less healthy.

40 were translocated, and the move has gone so well, that some of the individuals have already started dispersing into the surrounding area.

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Vestas a wind turbine company has created a project which allows turbine blades to be fully recyclable

Given the huge number of wind turbines that are being created, and are eventually going to reach end of their life.

It is therefore odd that it has taken so long for people to start to make the blades recyclable. The thermoset composites are able to be split and then broken down into their initial component parts. These parts can then be reused as though they are raw materials just created. Indeed at the current time, the only part of a wind turbine that could not be recycled was the blades. As a result, wind turbines can become completely green after manufacture.

This destroys one of the few remaining arguments against wind turbines, and should make way for a significant worldwide increase in turbine deployment.

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